District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Impact of conflict on the elimination targets of lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Mozambique has one of the highest burdens of neglected tropical diseases in Africa. Lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths are being targeted for elimination as part of integrated mass drug administration campaigns. The progress made towards interruption of transmission has been affected by recent conflict in Cabo Delgado province. The aim of this paper was to determine the potential impact of this crisis on the neglected tropical diseases programme and the challenges in reaching the elimination goals of 2030. METHODOLOGY: A desk-based secondary data analysis was conducted on publicly available sources of neglected tropical diseases, conflict incidents, internally displaced persons and geographical access between 2020 and 2022. Data were summarised and mapped using GIS software. A combined risk stratified assessment at district level was developed with five classifications i) Very high-risk; ii) High-risk; iii) Medium to high-risk; iv) Medium risk; and v) Not at risk due to conflict absence but co-endemic. RESULTS: Lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths were co-endemic in 115 out of 156 (74%) districts. Between 2020 and 2022 a total of 1,653 conflict-related incidents were reported, most of them in Cabo Delgado province (n = 1,397, 85%). A five-fold increase of internally displaced persons was recorded from April 2020 (n = 172,186) to November 2022 (n = 935,130). Geographical accessibility also deteriorated across the province with an increase from five (29%) in 2021 to seven (41%) districts in 2022 classified as hard-to-reach. The combined risk stratification identified that most districts in Cabo Delgado province had medium to high-risk (n = 7; 41%); very high-risk (n = 5, 29%); medium risk (n = 3, 18%); high-risk (n = 2, 12%). CONCLUSION: Most of the districts of Cabo Delgado were considered to be at risk of not meeting the neglected tropical diseases road map 2030 targets due to the humanitarian crisis ongoing. There is the need for practical strategies and funding to overcome these hostile challenges.